The grosser the better

The Broncos - with someone named Jarrett Stidham at QB - are exactly the kind of really gross side you should probably take.

It’s not my intention now, or really ever, to use this newsletter to send out picks. I’m not morally bankrupt enough to become a tout, and as a practical matter, there’s no good way to give out plays in a forum like this that will be actionable given market availability, price sensitivity, and so on.

All that being said: You should probably bet on the Broncos.

I’ll talk a bit about the Broncos specifically, but my main point here is that when a pick is truly gross, the idea of watching it fills you with dread, and nobody in their right mind would be excited to put their money on it, it’s a good sign it’s the right side.

The Broncos pulled off an overtime win to reach the AFC title game, but lost QB Bo Nix in the final moments. That sets them up to earn a Super Bowl birth with Jarrett Stidham as their starter. Stidham is not just a backup, he’s a backup who has barely seen the field. In six years in the NFL, he has all of four starts.

The consensus among the public and square gambling Twitter is that the Broncos are cooked. The crypto and prediction market bros are calling the Patriots a “bond.” The line for the game opened with Denver +5.5, a seven (7!) point move from the look ahead.

All of that has me salivating to get some money down on Denver.

To be clear, there are no trends that you can blindly follow and profit as a bettor. But if a bet makes you feel gross, it’s often a sign that you are pointed in the right direction.

One of the most basic examples of this is Under bets. Historically, Unders win at a higher rate than Overs (in every sport I’m aware of). It’s not enough of course that you could blindly bet Unders, but it’s real and it’s been that way forever. Why is that? It’s the grossness, I tell you.

Think about betting an Over: You’re rooting for action and scoring. An over can cash in the first half of a game, leaving you to enjoy the rest of the game sipping your drink and knowing you are a Brain Genius.

Now thing about betting an Under. You are hoping for mediocrity and failure. The best outcome for you is nothing happening at all. Unders are also a sweat up until the game is done. It doesn’t matter how much the game seems to be going as you expected, YOU CAN LOSE AT ANY TIME.

When it comes to sides, the book has to post a line for every game. The common misconception that books need equal action on both sides isn’t true, but they need to post a line that will get at least some action on both sides. When an absolute dog of a team is playing, how do they do that? If nobody’s betting for the dogshit team, they need to keep moving the line. Really bad teams can be so unpopular that the book moves the line farther than it should to finally entice any action at all on that side.

Again, it’s not like you can blindly bet every awful team. But keep in mind when you’re looking at a line for this kind of a game, there is a force in the market that tends to push the line towards the awful team that nobody wants to bet.

The strength of that force will vary greatly, and as always, you have no way of knowing what’s baked into the line and what isn’t. On some Tuesday afternoon MLB game that only you and twelve other sharps are betting, I wouldn’t expect the line to be shaded too far.

But to bring this back to the Broncos, we’re talking now about Conference Championship Games, among the most bet non Super Bowl games. There is a tremendous amount of public money in these markets. When the perception that a team like the Broncos is a loser is so widespread, that’s by no means a guarantee but it is an opportunity.

As with any bet, the question of “which side” is less important than “at what price?” Full disclosure, I’m not an NFL Originator, so I don’t have a model I can plug into and give you the exact price. I’m more of a top-down guy when it comes to the NFL. But a 7-point move is pretty insane. Truth be told, I would play anything above 4.5. But timing is going to be a factor here as well.

One downside of this being Championship weekend is it’s much harder to predict the timing of the markets. If this were the regular season, and the game opened at 5.5, I would expect it to move up to 6 or 6.5 riding the tide of public perception, then settle more like 4.5 very late when limits were raised and the bulk of the sharp money came in.

During the playoffs, books take big money much earlier. As a result, lines tend to move into shape much earlier. Me? I’ll hang around for a while and hope for a 6, but this is a play for me even if one never pops.

Again, this is just one game, and I have no control what happens after I click publish, so please don’t put too much stock into this “pick.” But I wanted to highlight this game specifically as it’s a great example of why being on the gross side can be just a bit of a signal that you’re on the right side.

Are you on this game? Any other thoughts on betting gross? I’d love to hear from you in the comments.